DNV provides new carbon risk framework for shipowners

The Maritime Forecast to 2050 report examines sustainability regulations, new technologies and fuels

DNV provides new carbon risk framework for shipowners


The new report analyses the use of new technologies and fuels in meeting emissions targets

By Alex Smith |

Classification society DNV has launched its latest Maritime Forecast to 2050 report, featuring analysis of the new technologies and fuels needed to help the industry meet global emissions targets.

The 80-page report includes an overview of the current regulatory landscape, provides updates on new technologies and fuels, and investigates the financing of green onboard investments.

“A misstep today in newbuild fuel strategies can have damaging consequences for businesses and assets in the future,” said Knut Ørbeck-Nilssen, CEO of DNV Maritime. “So, owners need practical, expert advice and smart solutions to ensure vessels stay competitive, compliant and commercially attractive over their lifetimes. This is where the Maritime Forecast to 2050 can help turn strategic uncertainty into confident decision-making.”

The report provides an updated framework for managing carbon risk in new ship designs, an evaluation of fuel strategies and the vessel design implications of those approaches. A ‘decarbonisation stairway’ model is introduced to show how individual owners can adapt to stay below the required emission levels.

“With between 1,000 and 2,000 ships expected to be ordered annually through 2030, there’s a real need for informed decisions that consider a diverse array of factors,” said Linda Sigrid Hammer, principal consultant for DNV Maritime and the report’s lead author. “Our revised framework allows for detailed assessments, providing support and expertise to mitigate the risks and uncertainties facing owners. The carbon neutral destination for the industry is clear, but the pathway is not. This report will help owners chart their way forwards.”

The report also features case studies to help readers evaluate fuel and technology scenarios and compare different solutions. It finds that 12 per cent of newbuilds have ordered with alternative fuel systems, increasing from six per cent in the previous study in 2019. However, less than one per cent of ships currently in operation use alternative fuels, according to the report. DNV forecasts that total capital expenditures required to satisfy International Maritime Organization decarbonisation goals will range from $250-800 billion between 2020 and 2050, depending on fleet size.

Download the full report via the DNV website.

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