As the cruise industry accelerates its journey toward net zero, the challenge is no longer simply one of compliance but of foresight.
While the International Maritime Organization’s (IMO) long-awaited net-zero framework has been postponed until October 2026, the regulatory and commercial pressures remain very real, and operators must anticipate how their decisions today will shape the financial and environmental performance of their fleets tomorrow. With new schemes such as the UK Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) joining established frameworks like the European Union (EU) ETS and FuelEU Maritime, the complexity of the regulatory environment is increasing, and even small calculation errors can cost operators millions. The ability to plan with precision has never been more important.
Over the past decade, the maritime sector has invested heavily in digital tools to track fuel consumption, equipment performance and compliance metrics. Yet most of these tools remain reactive: they measure and report but rarely help inform future strategy or decision-making. As regulatory complexity and carbon-intensity targets tighten over time, this reactive approach is no longer enough.
Following the introduction of the IMO’s revised greenhouse gas (GHG) strategy in 2023, the maritime industry has placed a renewed focus on energy-efficiency measures which have the potential to make a sizable contribution to shipping’s 30 per cent GHG reduction target by 2030. Predictive modelling systems, such as Bureau Veritas’s (BV) OptiCARBON, can help unlock this potential by simulating the financial and operational impact of efficiency upgrades before implementation.
By combining historical data, vessel modelling and simulation, shipowners can forecast how changes in operational profiles, such as speed optimisation, onshore power supply (OPS) management, or fuel mix adjustments, affect efficiency, and as a result, regulatory exposure. Rather than reacting to problems, predictive tools help shipowners prevent inefficiencies, avoid penalties and optimise investments.
For cruise and ferry operators, this foresight is invaluable. These fleets have intricate operating profiles, characterised by frequent port calls, seasonal routes and high hotel loads. Simultaneously, the sector faces increasing exposure to new environmental requirements. Introduced in 2025, FuelEU Maritime sets initial fuel-intensity limits for voyages to, from and between EU ports, while the EU ETS applies a carbon price to those emissions, with costs expected to rise year on year.
Meanwhile, the IMO’s proposed net-zero framework, once expected to introduce binding targets and a compliance mechanism from 2028, has been delayed, adding further uncertainty. Operators must therefore plan proactively in a fragmented environment where each voyage can carry different cost implications. To address these challenges, OptiCARBON’s schedule functionality allows operators to build, test and adapt voyage plans directly within the same platform used to predict energy consumption, ensuring the technical feasibility of itineraries through calendar-based algorithms that verify port access, including tide checks.
To make these choices confidently, operators need tools that can simulate multiple “what-if” scenarios: how would a lower-carbon fuel blend affect emissions and ETS exposure? What is the return on installing OPS by 2030? Would an earlier connection to OPS be financially beneficial?
Predictive platforms such as OptiCARBON have been developed for this purpose. Initially designed to support ferries, cruise ships and ro-ro vessels, the web-based software uses digital models to simulate operational, regulatory and financial scenarios. Beyond forecasting, OptiCARBON also provides optimisation capabilities, using advanced algorithms to determine, for example, the optimal biofuel mix for each vessel and year to minimise total cost, EU ETS exposure and emissions.
While conventional tools focus on monitoring compliance, predictive systems enable forward-looking decisions. They bridge the gap between technical performance and long-term strategy, helping operators design decarbonisation plans that adapt as rules and technologies evolve.
The transition to net zero will not follow a single pathway. Cruise lines are pursuing a mix of solutions, from LNG and biofuels to methanol, OPS and efficiency retrofits, each with different costs and benefits. OptiCARBON enables operators to assess and optimise these options using data, from calculating the ideal biofuel mix or pooling strategy to assessing the impact of wind-assisted propulsion systems on FuelEU Maritime and ETS costs. This balance between sustainability and practicality is central to BV’s approach, which combines digital innovation with technical advisory services to help clients chart tailored, future-ready paths to net zero.
Predictive platforms strengthen collaboration across departments, enabling engineers, sustainability officers and finance teams to test scenarios on a shared dataset to understand how each decision influences a fleet’s decarbonisation trajectory.
This clarity transforms fleet management. Rather than reacting to compliance pressures, operators develop data-driven strategies that evolve with new regulations and technologies, ensuring every action supports long-term goals.
The road to net zero demands constant adaptation. For cruise operators, success will hinge on combining human expertise with digital intelligence, using predictive systems not just to monitor performance but to anticipate change.
By embracing predictive modelling and planning, the industry can move from navigating uncertainty to managing it with confidence. Platforms like OptiCARBON demonstrate how data, paired with regulatory and technical insight, can help the sector decarbonise faster and more sustainably.
Ultimately, the journey to net zero begins with better decisions. Predictive tools simply make those decisions clearer and more effective for a cleaner, competitive future.
Jordan Renouard is product owner of OptiCARBON at Bureau Veritas Solutions (Credit: OptiCARBON)